Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
